Pasadena Financial Planner -- Pasadena, California

Financial Planning Reading List

The Pasadena Financial Planner has written extensively about personal financial planning and investment management on a variety of websites. When I work with clients to develop their customized lifetime financial and investment plans, they often ask what they should read to improve their financial literacy.

This article provides a list of recommended reading from among the many hundreds of articles that I have authored in the past several years. Note that I have personally written all the content that you will find on the six personal finance and investment websites referenced below.

Enjoy!

The Skilled Investor website

Note that you can find all of my other financial websites, by going to The Skilled Investor website and clicking on the red colored links in the left hand column on any page of The Skilled Investor website.

On the front page of The Skilled Investor website you will find an index of pages with major categories and subcategories. Within the subcategories there are lists of articles and the front page tells you how many articles are in any subcategory. There are many articles in addition to those listed below, which you can find by clicking on the subcategory links below that have arrows in front of them.

This article continues below this introduction:

Pasadena Financial Planning

A truly independent financial planner and fee only investment advisor

.

Larry Russell, Managing Director

MBA – Stanford University, MA – Brandeis University, and BS – M.I.T.

Lawrence Russell and Company Pasadena, California 91103

A California Registered Investment Adviser — Certificate 133101

KNOWLEDGE — OBJECTIVITY — HONESTY — DILIGENCE — SATISFACTION

Start a conversation today — Send a message using this contact form

Financial Planning Pasadena CA

Article continues:

Here are some suggested personal financial planning and investment management articles within the major categories and subcategories. Article titles are descriptive and should help you decide which articles you want to read first.

Personal Investment Management

  • Asset Allocation and Personal Investment Risk Tolerance Articles
  • Cost Control and Investment Performance Improvement Articles
  • Investment Asset Diversification Articles — Reducing Your Portfolio Risk
  • Investment Luck versus Investing Skill Articles
  • Investment Returns and Securities Market Risk Premiums Articles
  • Financial Planning and Investment Management Personal Efficiency Articles
  • Scientific Investment Best Practices Articles
  • How Stock and Bond Markets Value Investment Securities

    • Personal Financial Planning

    This is a must shortened list of available articles, because there are many other personal financial planning articles posted on The Pasadena Financial Planner website. See a selected list below.

  • Financial Decision Rules
  • Retirement Planning
  • About VeriPlan — Personal Finance Software for Your Lifetime

    • Financial Advisors, Investment Counselors, and the Financial Industry

    Are Your Best Interests the Same as the Financial Services Industry?

    Payment of Investment Advisors, Financial Planners, and Investment Counselors

    Selecting a Financial Planning Advisor or Investment Adviser

    Regulation of Financial Advisors and Investment Advisers

    Frauds and Scams by Financial and Investment Advisers

    Best No Load Funds website

    Click “Sitemap” in top banner for a list of articles. Suggested reading:

    To find articles that focus on each of these seven selection criteria, either click on the numbered headings within this article or go to the Sitemap.

    No Load Bond Funds website

    Click “Sitemap” in top banner for a list of articles. Suggested reading:

    The Skilled Investor Blog

    (associated with The Skilled Investor website)

    You could read these selected articles:

    Low Cost S&P 500 Index Funds website

    You could read these selected articles:

    The Pasadena Financial Planner website

    Click “Sitemap” in top banner for a list of articles.

    Suggested reading:

    The two articles above summarize “10 Financial Planning Steps in the Right Direction,” a recommended personal financial planning process. There are individual articles with more details about each of these 10 steps. You can find them by clicking on the bold section headers within the two articles above, or you can find them by clicking the “Sitemap” link on any page and looking for the articles that are numbered 1 through 10.

    In addition to these financial planning process articles, read:

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    Living Expense Tracking Methods

    Many people do not track their living expenses and do not understand the magnitude of their consumption. Failure to monitor your consumption expenditures means that they are flying blindly regarding their future finances. If you do not understand how much you spend and how much you are saving and investing, you simply do not have a financial plan. This situation dramatically increases your family’s long-term financial risk.

    I strongly recommend that people adopt some form of expenditure tracking to increase their understanding of their annual ordinary living expenditures. A variety of manual and/or automated methods can be used to track expenses.

    In general, there are at least three primary methods of tracking ordinary living expenses on either an annual, quarterly, or monthly basis. These methods are more or less time consuming, and each provides differing levels of information about your consumption. Furthermore, these methods can have ancillary efficiency benefits to your ongoing family financial management process.

    Any of these three methods could provide the information needed to validate your total annual ordinary living expense assumption for purposes of your long-term financial planning using the VeriPlan lifetime financial planning tool. The following discussions summarize these three methods, and I recommend that you choose the one that seems to suit you best.

    This article continues below this introduction:

    Financial Planner in Pasadena California

    A truly independent financial planner and fee only investment advisor

    .

    Larry Russell, Managing Director

    MBA – Stanford University, MA – Brandeis University, and BS – M.I.T.

    Lawrence Russell and Company Pasadena, California 91103

    A California Registered Investment Adviser — Certificate 133101

    KNOWLEDGE — OBJECTIVITY — HONESTY — DILIGENCE — SATISFACTION

    Start a conversation today — Send a message using this contact form

    Financial Planners Pasadena California

    Article continues:

    A) Consolidated Account Cash Flow Expenditure Tracking

    To track expenditures via cash flow analysis requires that you funnel all your expenditures through one or just a very few checking, credit, and debit accounts so that you have more consolidated records of your family’s financial transactions. The greater the number of accounts, then the more time consuming it is to remove inter-account transfers. Then, on either a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis, you simply measure the net cash flows and compare beginning and ending balances. The result is the net cash flow for the period.

    For example, in its most simple form you would have one checking account and one or two credit/debit accounts, through which you paid all of your ordinary living expenses during a year. You could automatically deposit your net paychecks into this checking account, after your gross pay had been reduced for income tax and other tax withholdings, regular investments, etc. This consolidated account would be dedicated to paying only your ordinary living expenses, through 1) checks, 2) monthly payoffs credit card bills (in full, of course), and 3) cash for spending money.

    Using this method, all you would need to do is take the beginning cash balance, add paycheck deposits, and subtract the ending balance to arrive at the ordinary living expenditures for the period. Of course, for whatever period you chose (monthly, quarterly) there would be a few bill payment timing issues. However, these timing issues, would tend to average out over the periods.

    To make this ordinary expense cash flow measurement method work, you would need to pay other mortgage/debt payments and investments from a different account. Presumably, your ordinary expenses would be much less than your net earned income. As the cash balance in your ordinary expense checking account rose, you would periodically transfer cash to an interest bearing money market account periodically. Then, this interest bearing account would pay your mortgage, your debts, and enable you to make further make more investments – either automatically at regular intervals or on an ad hoc basis.

    This cash flow method has the advantage of simplicity and requires only that you pay attention to which accounts you use for which types of payments. However, this method only provides an aggregate measure of ordinary living expenses and does not allow you to understand in detail where you are spending your money.

    Note further that it is really not necessary to have a separate account to make mortgage, tax, and investment payments. If you use a single account, you would just need to adjust for any such “non ordinary living expense” payments, when you do your cash flow analysis. Nevertheless, using separate checking for ordinary living expense payments and a separate money market account for all other payments does have certain virtues.

    While checking accounts do not pay interest, keeping a small cash buffer in a checking account can help to avoid periodic account fees and buffer your from overdraft charges. Periodically, as your cash builds up, you can transfer funds to an interest bearing money market account out of which you can pay mortgage bills and real estate taxes and make investments.

    B) Receipt Collection and Addition

    Alternatively, you could keep all receipts and total them on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. This method is more work than the account based cash flow analysis method discussed above. Receipt tracking requires that you be conscientious about collecting and totaling ALL of your receipts. This includes tracking the checks that you have written from your checkbook.

    This receipts tracking method also would require you to track cash expenditures. You might simply make notes for cash expenditures (above some trivial minimum) and treat these as receipts. Otherwise, you could just use a very simplified cash flow measurement for your cash payments, such as adding up monthly ATM cash withdrawals.

    While this manual receipt collection and totaling method requires more time and more conscientiousness about keeping receipts, it also can have more benefits. You can sort receipts into standard expense categories and keep a total of these categories.

    Simple spreadsheets would allow you to track both expenditures within categories and total expenditures over time. Categorization of expenditures is helpful, when understanding fluctuations over time, and deciding where to reduce expenditures, if you sought to do so because your savings rate was below your expectations and plan.

    C) Use of an Automated PC Expense Tracking Program

    This third alternative can be more time consuming, but it can provide even more expense tracking and payment automation benefits. Overall, the use of a fully automated expense monitoring and bill payment system can be more efficient than a manual system.

    There are a number of PC based automated personal expense tracking systems available. The leading one is Intuit, but there also are Microsoft Money, Mvelopes, and others.

    For people who are very comfortable with computer based and Internet applications, these automated programs provide a wide variety of benefits. Regarding Intuit, for example, ordinary living expense tracking is almost a side benefit of using Intuit to manage your short-term cash flows and accounts. In addition to logging all your transactions, you can use its ability automatically to connect to your online financial accounts and to integrate your checking, savings, credit, and investment accounts for a unified view on your PC.

    Learning an application like Intuit takes some time, and time is required for ongoing maintenance. Nevertheless, the automated integration of all your accounts, and the ability to make electronic bill payments and other financial transactions, can easily compensate for the learning and ongoing time commitment. People spend a large amount of time and postage manually paying bills by mail.

    Furthermore, bill payments through the mails might not be delivered properly. In addition, sometimes mailed payments are not processed properly by the financial institution that receives them. These error situations are irritating and time consuming to correct. Electronic payments can be more efficient and more timely and can have a lower error rate.

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    Your Family Financial Planning

    10 Financial Planning Steps in the Right Direction

    Families need an objective financial planning process. In addition, they need to be in control — whether or not they have a family financial planning consultant. With a well-designed and personal financial plan, you can optimize your financial affairs over your lifetime. You can greatly reduce the waste of your money and your time. I recommend the 10 steps below for personal financial planning and personal investment management.

    To find an in depth article for each step, just click on the Sitemap link at the top of this page and look for the articles numbered from 1 to 10. Also, you can reach us by using the contact form below. Please enjoy reading this article. Thank you!

    1 – Personal Financial Planning

    Because you must live with the results, you need to take full responsibility for your financial and investment success or failure. Delegating financial planning and investment decisions to advisers largely on faith can be very dangerous. Naive hope without adequate personal financial knowledge, attention, and control can be very risky to your personal and family welfare. The only practical solution is for you to increase your personal financial planning and investment knowledge and skills.

    This article continues below this introduction:

    Financial Planning Pasadena CA

    A truly independent financial planner and fee only investment advisor

    .

    Larry Russell, Managing Director

    MBA – Stanford University, MA – Brandeis University, and BS – M.I.T.

    Lawrence Russell and Company Pasadena, California 91103

    A California Registered Investment Adviser — Certificate 133101

    KNOWLEDGE — OBJECTIVITY — HONESTY — DILIGENCE — SATISFACTION

    Start a conversation today — Send a message using this contact form

    Financial Planning Consultants in Pasadena California

    Article continues:

    Educating clients about scientific investment and financial planning is extremely important to me. As such, I have written many educational materials that are of interest to my clients and the general public. My objective financial publications on The Skilled Investor website and blog are often the reason that people learn about my fee only independent financial planner and investment advisor services.

    Your questions are important to me, and you should expect there to be a factual basis for any strategies and recommendations that I make. Please ask any and all of your questions, as we work together. During the course of developing a comprehensive, personalized plan for you, if you are interested, I can provide copies of educational materials that I have written and copies of original scientific finance papers that are particularly applicable to your situation.

    2 – Financial Planning Tools

    The single most significant financial lever that individuals control directly is their management of personal expenditures. The second is their lifetime effort to obtain sufficient income. Most people simply do not save enough of their current income to fund adequately their future needs.

    To analyze your financial affairs in detail, we will use VeriPlan. VeriPlan is a very sophisticated and customizable computer planning model that I have developed. VeriPlan enables you to view graphical projections of your family’s income, expenses, assets, and debts across your lifetime. Data inputs reflect your particular situation and include all your assets, including cash, bonds, equities, property, real estate, private equities, and business interests.

    Step 2 is a very important step, because this is where we construct your baseline financial plan and measure your current financial circumstances and goals and intentions for the future. To develop your customized lifecycle model, we will work together to gather information, adjust assumptions, and evaluate the effects of different financial decisions across your lifecycle. For more information about VeriPlan, see: Personal Finance Software for Your Lifetime.

    VeriPlan can vary future expected investment returns by asset class, and it automatically analyzes the details of your taxes and investment expenses. Any and all assumptions can be changed for instant “what-if” testing. The model’s risk analysis capabilities evaluate how well your future assets would cover normal and extraordinary expenses, if market or personal circumstances were to disrupt your plans.

    Excessive and unnecessary investment costs can substantially undermine your lifetime investment returns. VeriPlan automatically projects the returns you will waste with such fees, if you do not choose more cost-efficient investments.

    3 – Investment Risk Tolerance

    Investors with different levels of risk tolerance are more satisfied investment strategies that are better aligned with their risk preferences. Differences in risk tolerances mean that more risk-averse investors are personally more satisfied with a lower risk portfolio despite its lower expected returns. Less risk-averse investors are more satisfied with portfolios characterized by higher risk and higher expected returns.

    While there are a variety of approaches to the measuring relative investment return and risk preferences, we do not believe that a simple “check-a-few-boxes” survey is sufficient. Therefore, you can expect that we will discuss your feelings about risks and rewards. We will assess together your likely behavior in the face of financial risks that might actually materialize.

    We will also discuss the implications of adopting a particular investment risk profile relative to that of the average investor. Furthermore, we will test the financial projection implications of your risk preferences using VeriPlan. With VeriPlan modeling your particular financial situation, you can better appreciate the projected outcomes of different investment allocations associated with your risk preferences.

    4 – Investment Diversification Strategy

    Diversification is genuinely a financial planning and investment “free lunch.” A fully diversified portfolio is a key contributor to improved investment risk management. Diversification has become an axiom of personal investing, because the specific risks of businesses and other investment entities can be reduced or eliminated from a portfolio without reducing expected returns. As such, our investment recommendations will usually focus on very low cost mutual funds and very low cost exchange-traded fund (ETF) investments.

    A significant portion of a portfolio may sometimes become concentrated in a single investment entity, which increases the overall risk of the portfolio. While undesirable, there sometimes are good or unavoidable reasons for investment concentration. In such circumstances, we will provide recommendations on possible ways to ameliorate the associated risk. If there are not good reasons to maintain the current level of concentration, then we will discuss how to reduce this concentration.

    5 – Investment Asset Allocation

    Your risk preference relative to the average investor with the average portfolio will influence your asset allocation. Appropriately setting your personal asset allocation in line with your personal risk tolerance is a critical decision for every investor. Because the average risk-averse investor holds the average portfolio asset allocation, this becomes the starting point in determining how a specific individual’s portfolio might diverge from that average allocation.

    VeriPlan supports several mechanisms for allocating assets permitting a comparison of projections based upon different asset allocations. Anticipating allocation adjustments that may be needed in the coming year, we will also discuss how near-term net income might be invested to reduce the need to reallocate some of your portfolio in the future. If asset withdrawals are required to cover anticipated retirement expenses or other living expenses, we will recommend how to do this most cost and tax efficiently. Our goals will be to establish a durable approach to asset allocation and to minimize costs and taxes.

    See Part 2 — Pasadena California Financial Planning >>>

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    Your Family Financial Planning Process

    <<< Go Back to Part 1 (Steps 1 to 5) — Family Financial Planning Pasadena

    To find an in depth article for each step, just click on the “Pasadena Financial Planners Sitemap” link at the top of this page and look for the articles numbered from 6 to 10. Also, you can reach us by using the contact form below. Please enjoy reading this article. Thank you!

    6 – Personal Investment Strategy

    Given the extremely large number and variety of available securities, investors need a rational basis to select among them. Without rational selection criteria and a good understanding of which factors are more or less likely to increase risk-adjusted returns, investors will make poor decisions based on false assumptions.

    We will begin with the presumption that portfolio investment strategy would focus on broad-based, market oriented financial investments that can be acquired economically and held inexpensively in your portfolio for an extended period. We will provide a set of recommended investment vehicles and percentage allocations including a recommended minimum number of investment positions within each particular area. Consideration will be given to domestic versus international, value versus growth, small versus large capitalization, and other investment vehicles that may move the portfolio away from a broad market orientation. Of course, investment cost and tax implications will heavily influence these recommendations.

    This article continues below this introduction:

    Pasadena California Financial Planning

    A truly independent financial planner and fee only investment advisor

    .

    Larry Russell, Managing Director

    MBA – Stanford University, MA – Brandeis University, and BS – M.I.T.

    Lawrence Russell and Company Pasadena, California 91103

    A California Registered Investment Adviser — Certificate 133101

    KNOWLEDGE — OBJECTIVITY — HONESTY — DILIGENCE — SATISFACTION

    Start a conversation today — Send a message using this contact form

    Pasadena Financial Planning

    Article continues:

    Consideration will be given to your existing investment portfolio to determine what parts should remain and what should change. We will discuss a transitional plan for those parts that we recommend to change, and our recommendations will consider the cost and tax implications of making such changes. When appropriate, recommendations will also address adjustments that counterbalance any financial concentration that you may have elsewhere in your portfolio.

    7 – Investment Management Fees

    Even with optimal investment strategies, there is still substantial room to improve upon net investment performance through continued and vigilant focus on controlling investment costs and tax realization. The investment fees extracted by the financial securities industry are grossly excessive. Excessive costs imposed on “retail investors” have increased substantially during the past several decades on both a total cost and a percentage of returns basis.

    At the same time industry deregulation, market innovation, and increased competition have provided many new and useful mechanisms for investors to manage their assets in a much more cost- and tax-efficient manner. It is not hard to cut your investment costs, but you have to be conscientious and vigilant. I will help you to become an extremely cost-conscious investor, and I will help you to remove all those hands that may currently be in your family’s financial wallet.

    For your current asset holdings and for new investments we will model details of taxation and investment expenses in the projections. Recommendations will be provided which are designed to reduce investment costs, to reduce and defer tax recognition, and to shift tax realization toward lower tax rates.

    Recommendations for new investment will focus on very low cost, passively managed investment vehicles. A very wide variety of very low cost cash, fixed income, and equity investments are available through low cost channels, and there is no reason to purchase more expensive vehicles that are not expected to provide any better return or risk reduction.

    8 – Insurance Risk Management

    The world is fraught with numerous potential risks – financial and otherwise. Insurance can be purchased for a wide variety of situations, but the issue is always value and affordability. Many people could spend all their investable capital on insurance and have nothing left to invest and build a financial cushion for the future. Therefore, we can discuss a budget for insurance expenses and your preferences for risks you are willing to bear and risks you wish to ensure.

    While value, affordability, risk exposure, and risk tolerance should affect insurance purchase decisions, insurance is often sold and purchased emotionally. The issue is where to set a rational rather than emotional balance between expected risk and return.

    9 – Efficiency of Personal Investing Strategies

    Time in life is the most precious and perishable asset that a person has. It should be spent enjoyably and efficiently. Scientific investment strategies that rely on relatively efficient financial markets allow people to minimize their time commitment to personal financial planning and personal investment management. Yet, on average, you can still expect to obtain optimal risk-adjusted portfolio returns that are near the market’s return

    We recommend an annual review of your personal finance and investment plan on approximately the anniversary of your initial plan. At that time we will update your personal financial planning model and recommend any appropriate changes. In the interim, we can work together to implement recommendations that you accept and to perform other financial planning services that you want.

    10 – Independent Investment Counselors and Financial Advisors

    Pick financial planning and registered investment advisors solely to obtain objective and high quality advice. Specific investment advice is potentially of high quality, if it is carefully customized to your particular needs and is given by an adviser who is very knowledgeable, highly competent, and completely independent. If you agree with the advice being given, then buy the recommended financial products through the most inexpensive channel possible.

    We do comprehensive personal financial planning exclusively. We do not sell securities and do not hold assets in custody. We do not sell insurance, nor do we provide accounting services or legal advice. However, as part of our business development and networking efforts we make efforts to become acquainted with high quality professionals who can provide specialized assistance. In developing a plan for you, part of our focus will be on providing you with recommendations on how to acquire appropriate professional services both easily and economically.

    See: Personal Financial Planning Pasadena CA >>>

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    Benefit from the best fee only investment advisor helping for those in the West Los Angeles area, including Altadena, Arcadia, Baldwin Park, Burbank, Eagle Rock, Glendale, Glendora, Hollywood, Irwindale, La Canada Flintridge, and Pasadena.

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    Financial Advisor Pasadena

    Independent Investment Counselors and Financial Advisors

    Step 10 of 10 Personal Financial Planning Steps in the Right Direction

    Pick financial advisers and investment advisers solely to obtain objective and high quality financial advice. Specific financial counsel and investment counsel is potentially of high quality, only if it is carefully customized to your particular needs and only if it is given by an adviser who is independent, knowledgeable, and competent. If you agree with the advice being given, then buy the recommended securities and other financial products through the most inexpensive channels possible.

    This is one of the “10 Steps in the Right Direction” that make up The Pasadena Financial Planner’s personal financial planning and personal investment management process. For a summary of these ten steps, see Family Financial Planning. To find an in-depth article for each step, just click the Sitemap link at the top of this page. Also, you can reach us by using the contact form below, and you can subscribe to Financial Planning Software. Please enjoy reading this article. Thank you!

    This article continues below this introduction:

    Financial Advisors in Pasadena California

    A truly independent financial planner and fee only investment advisor

    .

    Larry Russell, Managing Director

    MBA – Stanford University, MA – Brandeis University, and BS – M.I.T.

    Lawrence Russell and Company Pasadena, California 91103

    A California Registered Investment Adviser — Certificate 133101

    KNOWLEDGE — OBJECTIVITY — HONESTY — DILIGENCE — SATISFACTION

    Start a conversation today — Send a message using this contact form

    Pasadena Investment Advisors

    Article continues:

    The only reliable way to ensure the potential objectivity of any financial planning advisor or investment counselor is to pay directly for the adviser’s services, after investigating the adviser’s background, competence, and work ethic.

    There are no shortcuts. “Free” advice is NEVER free. In fact, free advice is usually far more expensive than the advice that you receive from an advisor whom you pay directly. When you choose to obtain “free” advice, in lieu of paying fixed hourly services or a fixed fee for a planning project, the long term costs to you can be horrendously high. However, these huge costs are largely hidden and that is why this industry game of “free” financial advice keeps going on.

    Advice that is contingent on any expectation that you will purchase products through your financial counselor or adviser is subject to a major conflict of interest. Financial advisers, who are not paid directly by you, must instead derive their compensation from commissions and other fees paid by the financial services industry. By following “free” financial recommendations, you are much more likely to pay a significantly higher price over the long term.

    “Free” investment and other financial advice can become incredibly expensive advice – not just because of the high commissions and high visible and hidden costs. In addition, you may end up buying inferior financial products, because the free recommendations lead you to buy financial products that were not the best for your needs and that are not the best products available.

    If you take the “free” advice of financial advisors and investment counselors who are paid by the financial services industry, you are more likely to achieve inferior long term investment returns.

    For example, many people pay investment front end sales loads for advice that seems free. Industry representatives willingly tell you that their advice is both free and good. Advice paid by the financial services industry is neither free nor necessarily good. You just end up paying a financial sales rep to sell to you and in the process perhaps to confuse or mislead you about the facts.

    The industry argument is that the advice is free and that you only have to pay, if you do follow the good advice that is given so freely. Well, sales loads and good financial advice are a contradiction in terms. For example, industry-paid financial advisors do not get paid to push better investment index mutual funds with the lowest costs and the best future prospects.

    Much better advice can be found, when you look of it. If you buy and hold very low cost, low turnover, and broadly diversified passive index mutual funds, you are more likely to get better net long term total returns after taxes, fees, and other costs are taken into consideration. (See this article on our sister website, Best No Load Mutual Funds. It is entitled: “Best Noload Mutual Funds.”)

    Unfortunately, when you follow this kind of “free” investment advice, it often leads you to pay a sales load, which compensates your adviser and his firm. When you pay a front end sales load, your initial assets are lower, which obscures the huge long term cost of the load itself. In addition, the mutual funds that are recommended tend to carry more expensive management expense ratios and higher hidden investment portfolio trading costs.

    Furthermore, a 12b1 fee gets tacked on every year. With a 12b-1 fee, the same investment counselor who gave you the “free” advice will get paid over time to stick around and sell you more of the same. (See this article on our sister website, The Skilled Investor. It is entitled: “Investment Sales Loads” and “Returns lost to investment sales loads.”)

    Financial sales loads, excessive asset fees, high cost active investment strategies, and a myriad of other suboptimal financial industry strategies and products typically bleed 1/4 to 1/3 of the typical individual investor’s portfolio annually. This waste compounds year after year after year, until individuals and their families get smart and realize that “free” is not really free and that “just of percent or two” has a huge cumulative negative impact on their financial welfare. (See this article and another dozen Investment Performance Improvement on our sister website, The Skilled Investor. It is entitled: “Excessive Investment Costs.”)

    A financial advisor or investment counselor who has a conflict of interest can be very dangerous to your long term personal finance interests.

    Many industry-paid advisers are ethical and helpful. However, the reputations of ethical advisers are tainted by others who are just salespeople who masquerade as advisers. Furthermore, even industry paid advisors face a career-long struggle to be independent of financial industry influences. They must spend their careers balancing the best interests of their clients against the interests of the financial companies that employ them. They must weight continuously the best interests of their clients against their own personal financial interests, paychecks, and bonuses.

    Think about the continuing dilemma that an ethical person faces, when they are paid by the financial services industry and not their clients. Training programs for industry compensated financial advisors and investment advisors focus on selling, selling, and more selling. These people are classified as “producers” by the industry, because that is what they do. They produce revenue and profits for their companies. These revenues and profits come from you. (See this article on our sister blog, The Skilled Investor’s Personal Finance Blog. It is entitled: “The Financial Services Industry is Still the Largest S&P 500 Sector – Even after the Collapse of its Stock Values.”)

    When a financial advisor is not independent of the financial services industry, you can never be certain whether you are getting the best advice or just falling for the latest financial sales pitch.

    Once an ethical and newly minted financial counselor emerges from a financial industry training program and starts a financial sales career, the pressure to produce is constant. His compensation program will provide incentives to take more and more from his clients and will pressure him to pull in more and more assets to manage.

    His company will constantly pressure him to perform and produce more revenue. If you have any doubt about this, you should investigate the financial incentives that are offered to retail financial advisors and investment counselors. The financial sales and marketing programs are designed to drive higher revenues and higher profits. Again, you are the source of these higher revenues and profits. (See this article on our sister website, The Skilled Investor, entitled: The Securities Industry Calls Marketing and Selling – “Advising”)

    Now, think about the not-so-ethical financial advisor who is paid by the industry and thinks first about his or her paycheck and bonus, before taking care of your personal financial interests. You do not stand a chance. In the name of supposed “innovation” the financial industry has introduced so many new products and services that they greatly confuse the personal financial planning and management process. In and of itself, financial product innovation can be a good thing. However, large problems arise when this flood of new and expense financial products combines with not-so-ethical advisors and the marketing and sales culture of the financial services industry.

    US financial services industry regulation is minimal at best. When a loose regulatory environment is combined with not-so-ethical financial advisors and investment counselors, almost anything goes. Most financial consumers are confused and outgunned. If industry sales reps can push expensive, high compensation products into the “retail” financial consumer channel, they will. There is little to stop them from emptying the wallets of naive retail financial consumers and individual investors.

    You have to seek out and find independent financial advisors and independent financial counselors proactively. Most of the financial counselors who will actively approach you are industry paid “financial consultants.” They just want to add your financial assets to their “book of business.”

    When control of your assets is the primary objective, where will your best interests fit into the picture? You should never have to waste your time and emotion second-guessing your advisor’s motivations. Often, self-interested advisors are well trained, and their sales presentations are sophisticated and polished. It may be a challenge to tell whether the advice given is in your best interests or whether it serves the financial interests of your adviser and the company he represents.

    If you become more knowledgeable about how the personal finance advisory industry works, you can better assess the quality of the financial and investment advice that you receive.

    The links below will lead you to over 30 personal financial planning articles related to finding, selecting, and working with a financial advisor or investment counselor. These financial advisor and investment counselor articles can also help you to avoid the many problems associated with financial and investment frauds and scams.

    Note that these objective personal finance articles about finding a financial adviser or investment counselor are published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor. All articles on The Skilled Investor are written by the same author who researches and writes the articles for The Pasadena Financial Planner. (See: About The Skilled Investor.)

    All materials on The Pasadena Financial Planner website and on The Skilled Investor website have been researched, written, and published independently. To ensure objectivity, no compensation of any kind has been paid by any third party to influence the editorial content of either The Pasadena Financial Planner website or The Skilled Investor website.

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    Efficiency of Personal Investing Strategies

    Step 9 of 10 Personal Financial Planning Steps in the Right Direction

    This is one of the “10 Steps in the Right Direction” that make up the Pasadena Financial Planner’s personal financial planning and personal investment management process. For a summary of these ten steps, see “Your Family Financial Planning.” To find an in-depth article for each step, just click the Sitemap link at the top of this page. Also, you can reach us by using the contact form below, and you can subscribe to our Family Financial Planning Blogs. Please enjoy reading this article. Thank you!

    This ten-step optimal financial planning and investment management efficiency process envisions time-efficiency throughout all its phases.

    When pursuing optimal financial planning and investing strategies and controlling your costs and capital gains taxes, you also need to establish a time-efficient system to monitor, adjust, and adhere to your financial plan. You need to control and limit the time that you spend on your financial planning, and you need to focus your planning efforts on the most effective activities.

    Furthermore, since time is always money, you need to ensure that the financial advisors and investment counselors that you hire are also efficient. They need to deliver tangible value and do it quickly and efficiently. Obviously, you should also carefully monitor them and ensure that their recommendations are optimal and in your best interests.

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    Personal financial planning and investing is a lifelong process and not a one-time exercise. Personal situations and financial requirements change, as do the economy and the financial markets. Investment plans need to evolve. By establishing optimal practices at the outset, you can reduce your financial planning and investment management time and get on with other things you might prefer to do.

    Scientifically valid financial management and investing strategies often are more time efficient, largely because they are consistently passive rather than active in nature.

    For example, given the recommendation in Step 4 to use a Global Investment Diversification strategy, it is questionable whether the vast majority of individual investors should own any common stocks or individual bonds directly. Instead, they can achieve similar expected returns with lower risk by owning index mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The superiority of broadly diversified index mutual fund and ETF based investing for individual investors is broadly established in the financial research literature. Therefore, you should question why any financial advisor, who supposedly is operating in your best interests, would recommend that you hold an under-diversified portfolio.

    Note that, in your quest for personal financial planning and investment management efficiency, you also should have a very strong preference for advisors who will only charge you hourly fees or fixed project fees. Then, at least you have a much better chance of evaluating the scope the assistance and tracking the real costs of the efforts that go into advising you. You will be able to control your advisory costs more directly, and you will not have to tolerate advisory hand waving just to justify continuing high fees and asset sharing arrangements. (See these articles: ” Cost Control and Investment Performance Improvement“, which are published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor.)

    With financial services, which inevitably are very costly, less is most often more. This is particularly true given the predominant financial services industry business models that view “retail” clients as revenue and profit centers. When you in fact pay “free” advisors by letting someone else pay them, your best interests are at great risk. When you repeatedly pay a percentage of your valuable assets for financial and investment management services, you let someone feed continuously in your trough. Furthermore, with these repeated percent of assets fees, there often is no meaningful connection between what you pay and the value of what you get in return. Financial services industry fees are horrendously high, so you should protect yourself.

    A side benefit of choosing index mutual fund and ETF fund-based investments is to be more time efficient. Index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds require far less personal attention.

    Most individuals are poor portfolio managers. For the great majority of investors, portfolio self-management yields inferior risk-adjusted results. (See this article: What is the cost to individual investors of sub-optimal diversification?, which is published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor.)

    Managing a well-diversified, passive index-based portfolio of individual securities is a task that professional portfolio money managers can manage much more economically. Not owning individual securities means that individual investors do not have to keep up with and decide on a myriad of minutia about dozens or hundreds of companies.

    When you finally figure out that active investment management strategies just enrich the financial services industry at your expense, you will quickly abandon them.

    Then, it should become incredibly obvious to you that you should turn the index portfolio management task over to professional index mutual fund and ETF managers. The most cost effective multi-billion dollar index investment funds can be managed very efficiently by just a couple of skilled traders.

    Monitoring and adjusting your investment plan requires a periodic commitment of your time, but that commitment can be modest. If you choose optimal investment strategies and properly automate your financial tracking and periodic investing to the degree possible, then spending more time on personal finance becomes a matter of choice and not a necessity.

    Despite the great importance of financial planning and investment programs, people have lives to live, work to attend to, and family and friends to love and play with.

    Financial and investment planning should not and does not have to impose an excessive time burden. Unless financial planning and investing is an enjoyable hobby, which it is to some, there is a significant personal cost to spending time on personal finances. It is important to calculate one’s “effective hourly wage” for the time spent on investment management and to ensure that this hourly wage remains high.

    See these financial planning and investment management personal efficiency articles about the value of your time, which are also published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor:

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    Insurance Risk Management

    Step 8 of 10 Personal Financial Planning Steps in the Right Direction

    This is one of the “10 Steps in the Right Direction” that make up The Pasadena Financial Planner’s personal financial planning and personal investment management process. For a summary of these ten steps, see “Your Family Financial Planning.” To find an in-depth article for each step, just click the Financial Planner Pasadena CA Sitemap link at the top of this page. Also, you can reach us by using the contact form below. Please enjoy reading this article. Thank you!

    Set an insurance budget as part of your personal financial planning for non-investment risks

    While value, affordability, risk exposure, and risk tolerance should affect insurance purchase decisions, insurance is often sold and purchased emotionally. Yet, insurance premium payments reduce personal funds that might otherwise be available for additional investments and/or consumption. Many people could spend all their net savings on insurance premiums and have nothing left to invest and to build an investment portfolio. The issue is where to set a rational rather than emotional balance between expected risk and return.

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    The reality is that individuals and their families must intelligently and rationally budget for those insurance coverages that might ameliorate most effectively the risks that could do most damage their lifetime financial prospects. There simply are too many risks and too many types of insurance that cost too much. Given the required premiums for the broad range of insurance coverages, a majority or even a large minority of the US population simply can not afford adequate coverage for most of these insurance risks. Furthermore, they cannot find jobs that help to provide adequate coverage in some of these risk areas.

    At the outset, let me be very clear about the role of insurance in personal financial planning. Certain types of cost effective and carefully selected insurance coverages from reliable insurance companies are vital and very important to protect your family’s long term financial interests. Determining which insurance coverages would be most beneficial to you requires 1) knowledge of your needs, 2) an appreciation for uncertainty, 3) an understanding of the best product alternatives, and 4) complete objectivity in the decision process. Unfortunately, putting all four of these factors together when buying insurance is a very tall order.

    Given the unpredictability of life and the attendant risks, fears, and emotions, a primary point of this article is to urge you to shift your personal insurance decision making process toward as much rationality as is possible. When you find yourself in an insurance sales process, where subtle or overt appeals to your emotions have begun to predominate, stop and step outside the sales process for a breath of fresh air. Your emotions may be willing to pay any price for safety, but your rational mind should be asking about the tradeoffs. Do your homework BEFORE the ink is drying on the contract.

    Tradeoffs between personal financial and investing strategies and insurance risk management are inevitable

    Living is risky and unpredictable. For the price of their premiums, insurance companies promise to eliminate or reduce many of these risks for you. When you have coverage in force, you experience an insured event, and your insurance company steps up to meet its obligations, the real virtues of insurance are obvious. At other times, you must operate in a very broad realm of uncertainty about a) what might happen to you and your family, b) whether the insurance that you happened to purchase will actually cover the risks that actually materialize, and c) whether your insurance company will deliver on its promises.

    To remind you of the extent of the various risks to which you might be exposed, these are many of the insurance coverages that you could buy, depending upon your needs:

    Insurance is never free and you should never expect it to be “profitable” to you. Unless an insurance company is poorly managed and makes excessive benefits commitments, you can never make a “profit” from an insurance company on the premiums you pay. From a strict financial standpoint, you should always expect to get less money out of insurance than you pay in insurance premiums.

    In general, you are paying to participate in a risk sharing pool. That is all insurance really is. If, somehow, you find an insurance contract that seems to provide excessive benefits relative to its costs, then you better be toward the front of the claimant line, because the insurance fund will be exhausted before those at the back of the line get served. A better approach would be not to enter into any insurance contract that seems too good to be true.

    Insurance is even more expensive, because it not just a redistribution of paid in premiums and the pooled financial assets of policy holders. Insurance premiums include very substantial sales and marketing costs, administrative expenses, and insurance company profit requirements. For some forms of insurance, less than 50 cents of each dollar taken in gets paid out in benefits. Insurance is like a lottery. Insurance premiums and lottery tickets are both prices of participation. Yet, with insurance there inevitably is less joy in the payout, because something rather nasty needs to happen to become a “winner” with insurance.

    Risk and return tradeoffs between insurance and investments

    Insurance affordability inevitably dictates that most people will bear some insurable risks without insurance coverage. Individuals may be more or less comfortable with this situation. Having a good understanding of one’s risk exposure and risk tolerance is one place to begin.

    Given that people are exposed to many, if not most, of the risks that could potentially be reduced by the insurance coverages listed above, where do you set the balance? A good start is to have a better understanding of the potential impact of certain risks, through financial planning and cash flow modeling across your lifetime. To judge the value of insurance, you need to have a better understanding of the inevitable reduction of consumption, savings, and investments that accompanies higher insurance premium payments.

    In general, individuals can significantly lower insurance premium costs by focusing on buying catastrophic risk coverage and using self-insurance for more minor risks. For the insurance that you must have, shop around and choose high deductibles to reduce premium payments. Carefully evaluate the scope of insurance coverage to assure that the policy has good quality catastrophic coverage. Then, invest the premium savings achieved through higher deductibles, rather than spending those savings. Over time, these premium savings and investment returns on them will build up your self-insurance asset pool.

    Catastrophic personal events can drain assets and destroy the best of investment plans.

    Property, liability, life, disability, and other types of insurance may be rational purchases, because of risk pooling with other risk adverse people. However, these types of insurance are not investments in and of themselves. Instead, they limit the financial impact of potential, but relatively unlikely, negative future events. The question comes down to finding good quality insurance at a competitive price and determining the tradeoff between money spent on premiums versus money retained and invested.

    Optimal investment planning focuses on enhancing expected risk-adjusted portfolio performance. An optimal investment plan assumes that the necessary labor-based net income will be earned over time to build up your investment assets. By adopting optimal investment practices, individuals increase the chances of financial success that can be attributed to investment returns. However, other risks are inherent in life planning, and there are no guarantees. Personal financial and investment plans may fall short of goals due to a long list of non-investment risks. These risks include inadequate savings, personal tragedy, and family misfortunes.

    Combined insurance and investment products confuse personal financial planning decisions

    In recent years, insurance firms have expanded their products and services from offering only pure insurance to selling hybrid products that combine insurance and investment characteristics. Long ago, the insurance industry also garnered certain tax treatments that can make their products more seem more appealing to persons with particular tax situations. The mixing of these tax advantages into hybrid insurance and investment products makes evaluation even more confusing.

    Unfortunately, many hybrid insurance/investment products are characterized by inferior returns, very high costs, significant insured risk limitations, and other problems. Ultimately, the issue that the potential buyer must sort through is whether the purchase of a separate insurance-only product and a separate investment-only product would yield better insurance risk reduction and superior risk-adjusted investment performance. Very often, buying separate low cost insurance and separate low cost investments is a much better alternative.

    Insurance-based annuity income guarantees are not investments

    Investment risk cannot be insured or avoided. Without the risk of loss of capital, you simply cannot be investing. If you think that you can pay someone else to take away your investment risk through some insurance guarantee and still have the chance of earning an investment risk premium, you are simply mistaken. No insurance company will take on your investment risk, unless they can do so profitably for the capital that they must put at risk.

    Many investors rationally seek retirement income guarantees through annuities insurance products. When they purchase such insurance with their labor income and/or investment assets, they change the complexion of their portfolios. When they shift investment risk bearing to an insurance company providing a guarantee, they cease to be investors for that portion of their assets.

    For example, fixed or immediate annuities are not a investment. Instead, you transfer your assets to an insurance company and you pool your longevity risk across all annuity participants. Your expected total return is likely to be inferior to holding onto your assets and continuing to be exposed to the investment risks. However, unless you have far more financial assets than you are likely ever to need, you cannot self-insure against longevity risk.

    Longevity risk is when you live far longer than expected and you exhaust your financial assets somewhere along the way. The value of an annuity is realized, when you live a long life, and of course, the insurance company also stays around to meet its commitments. When your lifespan is shorter, you just happen to be the part of the annuity participant pool that provides valuable financial assets to fund the remaining lives of the other participants. From six feet under, presumably, you will not be concerned about your altruism toward these other longer lived annuity participants.

    Finally, there is one insurance risk that individuals must retain and cannot shift, when they trade their financial assets and investment risk to an insurance company for an annuity. This risk concerns whether the asset pool of the guaranteeing insurance company will be adequate to fulfill its future annuity obligations. The sad, yet still ongoing saga of the 1991 collapse of Executive Life Insurance Company is a reminder of nontransferable risk when dealing with insurance companies.

    Do your homework about the insurance company from which you intend to buy an annuity or any other insurance product. Looking into the resources and ratings of insurance companies can reduce the risk of non-fulfillment. Do not expect that a commissioned insurance agent or insurance broker will do this, as carefully as you should do this assessment. Insurance agents and insurance brokers will get paid at the front end, whereas you want to get paid all the way to the back end!

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    Asset Allocation, Investment Asset Tax Location, and Emergency Cash Management

    This article discusses personal investment portfolio asset allocation and some considerations about where to hold different classes of financial assets from the standpoint of more optimal taxation.

    As you move your cash, bond, and stock financial assets into lower cost, more broadly diversified investment mutual funds and/or ETFs, you should also consider how to “locate” your investment asset allocation with respect to more optimal taxation. This article will also discuss some ideas about where and how to hold your cash assets and how to make emergency cash available.

    First, we presume that you have already properly assessed your investment risk tolerance. Using knowledge of your investment risk tolerance, we also presume that you have decided upon an appropriate asset allocation across the primary cash, bond, and stock asset classes. Then, the next question is how you will split your cash assets, fixed income assets, and equity assets between your taxable retirement investment accounts and your tax-advantaged retirement investment accounts, including traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, traditional 401ks, Roth 401ks, and other such tax-advantaged retirement accounts.

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    Deciding which investment assets to hold in various types of taxable investment accounts versus tax-advantaged or tax-deferred retirement accounts is known as the “asset location” decision.

    There can be substantial confusion on the part of individual investors and many investment advisors as to the best location for assets from the standpoint of taxation over the long-term. Simply put, in deciding on your investment asset location, the question is whether you should hold your stocks, bonds, and/or cash in taxable and/or tax-advantaged retirement accounts. To summarize the investment research literature, the academic consensus is that you should prefer to hold your stock or equity assets in your taxable accounts and you should prefer to hold your cash and fixed income assets in your tax-advantaged accounts.

    The primary reason for this is that long-term federal capital gains tax rates historically have been substantially lower than short-term capital gains tax rates and ordinary income tax rates. Even though stocks tend to appreciate more quickly than bonds, taxation on equities can often be deferred for a very long time. In addition, when capital gains taxes must be recognized on equity asset transactions, very often these gains will be subject to lower federal long-term capital gains tax rates.

    [Note, of course, we also hope that you intend to lower investment fees significantly, if you have not done so already. You can invest your equity, bond, and cash assets in very broadly diversified, passively managed index mutual funds and index ETFs with very low costs, very low turnover, and very low taxes, as well.]

    Fixed income / bond assets and cash money assets usually yield income that must be recognized regularly and must be paid at generally higher ordinary income tax rates.

    Including inflation which has averaged 3% annually, stocks have returned about 10% per year over the past 80 years. Alternatively, expressed in real dollars or constant purchasing power dollars without inflation included, this means that stocks have yielded about 7% annually over the long-term. For these many decades, high grade longer duration corporate bonds have yielded about 5.5% to 6% including inflation and about 2.5% to 3% without inflation. Cash has yielded somewhat short of 4% with inflation and somewhat less than 1% in real terms without inflation. (For more information about long-term financial asset returns, see these Market Risk Premiums articles published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor.)

    For bonds, only a small part, if any, of longer duration fixed income yields are in the form of capital gains, which could be subject to more favorable long term capital gains tax rates. Cash does not generate favorable long-term capital gains at all. Despite the lower yields of bonds and cash, their income is usually continuous and taxable in the short-term. Particularly if you have a relatively high combined state and federal marginal income tax rate, you can lose a substantial part of your bond and cash income to taxation without the tax shelter provided by tax-advantaged retirement plans.

    In contrast, even though equities have substantially higher yields, a substantial proportion of these returns can be deferred, which avoids near term taxation. Furthermore, if properly managed, most often these taxable equity returns can be taxed at lower federal long-term capital gains tax rates, when needed.

    Combined, these factors mean you can net more after taxes by holding your equities investment assets in taxable accounts and by holding you bond and cash assets in tax deferred retirement accounts.

    In the research studies that were mentioned above, investigators analyzed a wide range of portfolios with different asset allocations and different asset tax locations. The objective of these studies was to determine what is optimal from a tax location standpoint, and uniformly they reached the general conclusion to put equity assets subject to long-term capital gains into taxable accounts and bond or fixed income assets into tax-advantaged accounts.

    Cash and cash equivalents, which tend to earn less than bonds are “located” in the middle from a tax location or tax optimization standpoint. If your particular asset allocation would me that any cash or bond assets would be held in your taxable accounts, the assets should be cash assets, because their taxable yields are usually lower than bonds. (See the related section below about cash holding entitled “Emergency cash management and your allocation of cash assets to tax-advantaged retirement accounts.”)

    Your asset allocation and the total amount of assets you have in taxable versus tax-advantaged accounts combined with your asset allocation will determine whether some of your cash, bond, and/or equity assets end up being held “less optimally” from a taxation standpoint in taxable or tax-advantaged accounts.

    To be clear, however, the research demonstrates that the asset allocation decision dominates the tax location decision. This means that you do not change your asset allocation decision, because of tax considerations. Instead, you hold to your asset allocation despite tax considerations. (Note, however, there may be alternative investment vehicles that address particular needs. For example, persons with very high federal, state, and local marginal income tax rates and a relatively high allocation toward bonds may find that their bonds would fill their tax-advantaged accounts and overflows into their taxable accounts. When this happens, they might benefit from holding municipal bonds rather than taxable bonds.)

    Obviously, over time your assets in taxable versus tax-advantaged accounts may grow at differential rates. In addition, over time you might decide to change your asset allocation between asset classes. However, asset allocations tend to be relatively stable because they are tied to your relative investment risk tolerance, which tends to be more stable. Therefore you preferred asset allocation percentages do not have to change over time, although they may.

    As time goes on, you may need to make rebalancing adjustments to maintain your asset allocation within the percentages and tolerances that you wish to maintain. This might cause some shifts in the which asset classes are held in accounts with different taxability. Nevertheless, your asset allocation decision still would drive everything.

    An example of how the personal asset allocation and asset location decisions are combined

    Your asset allocation decisions and your asset location decisions can be mapped onto a line that goes from 0% to 100%. First, total the cash, bond, and stock financial assets that you hold in your taxable and tax advantaged accounts, and then determine the proportions that are in taxable accounts or tax-advantaged retirement accounts.

    In this example, assume that you presently hold 60% of your total cash, bond, and stock financial assets in taxable accounts. In addition, assume that 30% of your total assets are held in traditional tax-advantaged accounts, and that 10% of your total assets are held in Roth tax-advantaged accounts.

    Using the 0% to 100% line illustrated in the graphic below, mark the range from 0% to 60% as your taxable assets. Mark 60% to 70% as your Roth tax-advantaged retirement assets. Finally, mark 70% to 100% as your traditional tax-deferred retirement assets. (Below, we will discuss why we have chosen to place your Roth retirement assets before your traditional tax-deferred retirement assets, as you move up this line.)

    Next, on this same line we will overlay your asset allocation. Let us assume that you have chosen an overall asset allocation of 70% to stocks and equity assets, 20% to bonds and fixed income assets, and 10% to cash and cash equivalents. Along this 0% to 100% line, your individual stocks, equity mutual funds, and stock ETF assets would be assigned to the left hand side of this line or from 0% to up 70%.

    Because bonds tend to be higher yielding than your cash, you would always assign your fixed income assets to the right hand side of this line. Since you have decided that you want to have a 20% bond asset allocation, then your bonds would fill in the range from 80% to 100%. Finally, your cash would fill in the space in the middle that remains between equities and bonds. In this case, you cash would be “located” from 70% to 80% along this line.

    Now, what is the result? Of your 70% allocation to equities, 60 percentage points would fill up your taxable accounts entirely and the remaining 10 percentage points would overflow into your tax-advantaged retirement accounts. In particular, your 10 percentage point overflow of equities would be invested in your Roth retirement accounts. Therefore, in this example, all of your Roth account assets would be equities, since 10% of your total assets currently are equities.

    For the remaining 30% of your total assets, which are traditional tax-advantaged assets in the 70% to 100% range of this line, these would be where you put your bonds and cash. Therefore, your 20% fixed income asset allocation and your 10% cash asset allocation would be held in your traditional tax-advantaged retirement accounts.

    Why would equities be allocated into Roth retirement accounts versus into traditional tax-advantaged retirement accounts.

    If your equity asset allocation is sufficiently high that some of your equity assets would be held in tax-advantaged accounts, then they would be invested in Roth accounts, if you have Roth account assets. Because equity assets historically have appreciated more quickly than bonds or cash, it is preferable for your stock assets to be in Roth accounts, which would not be subject to future taxation. Since traditional tax-advantaged accounts eventually would be taxed at ordinary income tax rates, you would prefer that these accounts would grow more slowly, while you would prefer that your Roth accounts would grow more quickly in relative terms.

    Also, note one caveat about the example presented above. If your asset allocation and/or taxable versus retirement asset proportions were different and your equities do not entirely fill your Roth accounts, then you would fill the remainder of your Roth accounts with your bond assets rather than your cash assets. This is simply because you would prefer to have higher growth fixed income financial assets in your Roth accounts versus slower growing cash assets.

    In addition to normal differences in investment asset class growth rates, there are some other personal estate planning reasons that could favor placing higher growth assets into Roth retirement accounts.

    Roth retirement accounts have some very significant advantages over traditional tax-advantaged accounts for estate planning purposes. If a family’s financial model indicates that there is a good possibility that they will still have some tax-advantaged account assets at death, then those should be Roth tax-advantaged account assets, whenever possible.

    US tax laws and IRS regulations require mandatory withdrawals from traditional retirement accounts after age 70 and 1/2. These mandatory withdrawals might be adequate to meet your expense needs in retirement without having to touch your Roth retirement account assets. During your retirement, your Roth accounts would not have mandatory withdrawal requirements. (Obviously, in retirement you would still have the option to withdraw either traditional retirement account assets and/or Roth retirement assets.)

    Furthermore, your Roth accounts could be inherited by your children, and these inherited Roth assets could also grow tax free within the inherited Roth account over the expected life of the child. During your child’s life there would be certain mandatory withdrawal requirements that apply to them and taxes would apply to these mandatory withdrawals. This means, for example, that a child inheriting a Roth account at age 40 could perhaps enjoy another 50 years of tax-free investment growth with an income stream along the way from the mandatory taxable withdrawals. Traditional tax-advantaged retirement accounts do not provide these very significant estate planning benefits.

    Emergency cash management and your allocation of cash assets to tax-advantaged retirement accounts.

    Some people become concerned, if their combined asset allocation decision and asset location decision means that all their cash would be held more optimally from a tax standpoint in their tax-advantaged retirement accounts versus in their taxable accounts. Furthermore, some people also may be concerned about how much cash to hold in a taxable account for “emergency” purposes, despite whether such taxable cash holdings are less optimal from a tax location standpoint.

    Often these emergency cash and tax issues are of lesser importance than they would seem at first. A decision can be made simply to keep “X” expense months of cash in a taxable account and to pay the taxes, even though this allocation might less than optimal from a tax savings standpoint. In addition, real estate lines of credit or other unused and available debt lines can be taken into consideration, which perhaps might reduce the amount of emergency cash that one desires to hold in taxable accounts.

    By way of example, if your monthly expenses were $6,000, you might want to hold 6 months cash or $36,000 in a taxable savings account. Assuming that you could earn the average historical pre-tax return of 4% annual interest rate on these $36,000 dollars, your taxable savings account would yield $1,440 in additional taxable income. If your total marginal federal income tax rate and state income tax rate was 26%, then you would pay about $375 more in federal and state income taxes annually to hold this cash in a taxable account versus in a tax-deferred retirement account.

    To optimize your asset tax location, you could invest your cash in a tax deferred retirement accounts and use off-setting transactions to raise cash money for emergencies.

    If you did happen to have a major financial emergency, you could make some offsetting transactions to free up the needed emergency cash from your retirement accounts. In effect, cash can be “moved” out of your tax-deferred accounts when needed by selling taxable equity assets for the cash that was required and then “replacing” those assets in your retirement accounts. You would replace the assets that you sold in you taxable accounts by buying similar assets in tax-advantaged retirement accounts using the cash that you held in your tax-advantaged accounts.

    Of course, these offsetting transactions could trigger capital gains tax recognition related to your equity asset sales from your taxable account sales. Over the long-term, the affects usually are quite small particularly since true emergencies consuming significant amounts of cash are relatively rare. Of course, you also might need to make overall adjustments to your asset allocation, given the emergency use of the cash. Furthermore, be aware of IRS wash sale tax rules that might apply, if you buy substantially identical investments in tax-advantaged retirement accounts, when you also sell them in taxable accounts.

    Finally, concerning a smaller cash emergency fund, you still might chose to hold some amount of cash in a taxable account for ready access — perhaps a few thousand dollars or more. There could be other benefits to doing this. You may find a bank that will arrange for your savings account cash (earning reasonable interest we hope) to act as over-draft protection to your linked checking account. With such an arrangement the higher taxes associated with holding a small amount of emergency cash in taxable accounts might be offset sometimes by preventing those nasty overdraft events, when you make a mistake and bank charges mount rapidly.

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    Investment Management Fees

    Step 7 of 10 Personal Financial Planning Steps in the Right Direction

    This is one of the “10 Steps in the Right Direction” that make up The Pasadena Financial Planner’s personal financial planning and personal investment management process. For a summary of these ten steps, see “Your Family Financial Planning.” To find an in-depth article for each step, just click the Pasadena Financial Planning Services Sitemap link at the top of this page. Also, you can reach us by using the contact form below. Please enjoy reading this article. Thank you!

    You can significantly improve your net risk-adjusted investment returns by lowering your investment fees and taxes. Cut your investment expenses and capital gains taxes to the bone!

    This very important financial planning step focuses on investors’ net or realized investment returns, after investment costs, fees, and capital gains taxes are taken into account. Net investment returns are those investment returns that individual investors could actually spend on themselves and their families.

    EACH AND EVERY YEAR, the average individual investor spends about 2% to 3% of their TOTAL investment portfolio ASSETS on excessive investment management fees, unnecessarily high securities trading costs, unjustifiably high investment custody fees, and completely avoidable usually short-term capital gains investment taxes. Where do you think a lot of those multi-billion dollar Wall Street broker bonus payments are coming from? Directly or indirectly from your taxable financial assets and retirement financial assets is the answer. In aggregate, brokers don’t add value. Some clients seem to win on occasion, but most just keep losing, while the brokerage house always takes its cut of the action. (See: “Excessive Investment Costs are a huge problem for individual investors” published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor.)

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    Lawrence Russell and Company Pasadena, California 91103

    A California Registered Investment Adviser — Certificate 133101

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    These wasted investment costs mean that the average individual investor typically gives away between 1/4 and 1/3 of his or her annual investment returns to the securities and financial services industry. In aggregate across all individual investors, these investors will get nothing in return.

    Well, that is not entirely true. In exchange for paying more to engage in high tax and high cost active investment management strategies, participating investors will be taken on a much wilder investment roller coaster. Unpredictably, active investors may experience more dramatic ups and downs. On average, in addition, they will suffer inferior investment performance due excessive investment costs and unnecessary capital gains tax payments.

    The cumulative long-term impact on personal investment portfolios is simply staggering. Across all investors, these excessive costs are a complete waste. In fact, excessive investment expenses are simply an incredible wealth transfer to the securities and financial services industry. The associated and unnecessary capital gains taxes are just a wealth transfer from individuals to the government.

    It is difficult to identify another industry that charges so much and promises so much to their customers, and yet ends up delivering so little in terms of added-value to their customers. Until individual investors wake up to the fact that they are paying far more than is necessary for so little in return, they are far more likely to have dramatically diminished investment portfolio assets during their lifetimes.

    For more information about the value of reducing your investment expenses and controlling your capital gains taxes, see these articles on “Cost Control and Investment Performance Improvement,” which are published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor.

    Human greed, personal investment ignorance, financial advisor compensation incentives, and the securities industry’s beat-the-market sales mantra are far too strong and too well-aligned for investment performance chasing by individual investors ever to end.

    Unfortunately, The Pasadena Financial Planner has no expectation that the causes of excessive investment costs and wasted capital gains taxes will ever change. This beat-the-market investment management shell game rubbish will continue as long as individuals believe that they can get better risk-adjusted performance than the other guy does at no real cost to themselves. Naive investors will continue to use superior historical performance as a false indicator of what will happen in the future. They will be continually be disappointed, but only if they ever bother to check their results against the net investment yield of a low cost, low tax passive index investment strategy.

    Naive individual investors, often abetted by their financial advisors, will continually pay excessive fees to investment money managers whom they hope will beat the securities markets for them. Yet, investment research studies indicate that there are no reliable ways for individual investors to identify, before the fact, superior active investment managers from within the crowd of mutual fund money managers.

    The excessive management fees that are charged across the industry virtually guarantee that individual investors will not be able to hire money managers at a profit. The average mutual fund management expense ratio is about two times higher that the apparent value-added of the average investment fund money manager.

    In addition, these excessive management expense ratios still do not include the much higher portfolio trading costs and higher capital gains taxes that go along with an actively managed mutual fund. Furthermore, most high cost actively managed mutual funds are sold through financial advisors who add no value in the selection process. Nevertheless, these investment counselors will still charge you a front-end sales load or a back-end sales load and will also add an annual 12b1 fee on top of the management expense ratio. What a deal!

    Particularly during the last two decades of the 20th century, the fees extracted by the financial securities industry have increased substantially on both a total and a percentage of returns basis. What has the value-added been? In aggregate, the value has been negative. Furthermore, as a bonus, unwitting participants in active investment management strategies experienced a much wilder investment ride and took greater investment risks than were necessary.

    Total mutual fund expenses and mutual fund management expense ratios have not decreased. To cut your investment fund costs, you have to do it yourself.

    If you pay attention to the statements of mutual fund industry trade groups, you may hear claims that mutual fund investment fees have come down (slightly) as a percentage of investor’s assets during the last couple decades. However, what the fund industry fails to explain is that almost all of the new mutual funds that it keeps introducing have higher than average management expense ratios. If the mutual fund industry could get you to pay higher investment expense ratios, it would and it does when it can.

    The mutual fund industry does this by launching numerous new mutual funds with high expense ratios. Then, after the fact, the mutual fund industry only promotes new funds and old funds that happened to have done well. The mutual fund industry knows that nothing sells better than the implication that superior past performance, as displayed in performance charts and with 4-star ratings and 5-star ratings, will continue. While this very selective marketing process hints that superior past performance will continue into the future, the legal small print always tells you not to count on it. For more information about the problems associated with immature mutual funds, see this article “Choose Mature Noload Mutual Funds” published on our sister website, Best No Load Mutual Funds.

    Even though it is just a chimera, the mutual fund industry is counting on individual investors to extrapolate superior past performance into the future. The mutual fund industry and its supposedly “independent” financial advisors, who only promote mutual funds with sales loads and four stars and five stars, both know that these funds are easier to sell to naive investors. The fee revenues are too good to do anything else instead, such as educate investors not to extrapolate past performance. For more information about selective mutual fund marketing, see this article “How Morningstar Ratings for Mutual Funds Are Used As a Marketing Tool” published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor.

    Note that the mutual fund industry will not dispute the fact that the total amount of fees that they collect has risen many times over. Invested assets have increased many times over due to investor savings and new investments and to investment asset growth and appreciation. When you charge people a percentage of their appreciating assets, then total industry fees have to go up in proportion, as well.

    Percent of asset fees are a revenue and profit gravy train for the financial services industry. However, you might want to stop and ask why the industry deserves a percentage of your assets each and every year. They are YOUR assets, are they not? Why just give them away without getting incremental value in return?

    Mutual fund management expense ratios have only come down because some investors have shifted their assets into low cost noload mutual funds.

    If you looked more carefully at the numbers, you would find that mutual industry claims of reduced management expense ratio percentages are based on aggregate data across all types of mutual funds. These aggregate data combine both: a) the much higher costs of actively managed mutual funds with sales loads and b) the much lower costs of no load index mutual funds. The primary reason why the average mutual fund expense ratio has come down in the past, albeit only slightly, is that a substantial minority of all individual investors has gotten smarter about excessive investment costs.

    More cost-conscious individual investors and certain of their more helpful financial advisors and some more cost conscious institutional investors have been redirecting increasing proportions of investment assets under their control into lower cost funds. These transfers of assets into lower cost no load mutual funds pulls down the overall management expense ratio percentage for all mutual funds.

    Furthermore, returns on low cost, no load index mutual funds have been better on average than actively managed funds. Therefore, these noload mutual fund assets have appreciated more rapidly. Low cost no load mutual fund assets will also tend to be greater, because an investor’s full dollar gets invested into a noload mutual fund. Sales loads siphon away about a nickel of each dollar at the outset to pay the financial adviser through a sales load. These sales loads diminish the total amount of actively managed investment fund assets compared to noload mutual funds.

    Therefore, the actions of some investors to seek lower costs have held down the growth of management expense ratio percentages and other costs. The mutual fund industry did not cause the average mutual fund investment expense ratio to come down (ever so slightly). They have been trying to push up your costs – and their revenues and profits in the process.

    If you start taking investment cost cutting much more seriously, you will not be alone. The industry will not do it for you. You have to lower your investment costs yourself.

    Management expense ratios and trading costs are also excessive for exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

    Concerning exchange-traded funds (EFTs), you may hear the argument that ETF management expense ratios are lower than mutual fund management expenses. This is another false industry comparison. Due to the structure of ETFs, virtually all exchange-traded funds are passive index funds. Unfortunately, newer exchange traded funds that have been introduced to the securities markets increasingly have carried higher management fees and have tracked narrower and more esoteric indexes. This ETF Balkanization defeats the important goal of achieving a broadly diversified portfolio economically.

    As a quick summary, here is why almost all ETFs are passively managed index funds. Since the composition of an ETF’s portfolios is known daily, an actively managed exchange-traded fund’s strategy would be exposed and would be gamed by other market participants. That is why it took until 2008 for just a few somewhat actively managed exchange-traded funds came to the market. On the contrary, actively managed mutual fund portfolios are not known to other market participants in real-time. Therefore, actively managed mutual funds can pursue their investment strategies without other professional traders knowing their strategy and trading against them.

    Since ETFs are almost all passively managed index funds, then their management expense ratios and all other expenses should be compared with very low cost passive index alternatives – both mutual funds and ETFs. When you look at the management expense ratios of most ETFs you find that there almost always is a much lower cost index mutual fund or ETF that you could purchase instead.

    Furthermore, since ETFs are traded on securities exchanges much more easily than mutual funds, the daily volume of ETF trading has exploded, when compared to total assets that are invested in ETFs. Mutual funds, which get priced once daily, are traded excessively by some performance chasing investors, but the amount of these trades is no where near the volume for ETFs. Furthermore, due to the mutual fund trading scandals early in this century, restrictions have been placed on short-term mutual fund trading, which occurs at the expense of longer-term mutual fund investors.

    If you do not buy and hold very low cost, broadly diversified ETFs, you can easily drive up your costs through excessive brokerage fees.

    ETF brokerage fees are far more likely to sink investors’ returns, than investors’ clever trading bets are to increase their exchange-traded fund returns. If you decide to invest in ETFs, you should understand the real danger of excessive exchange-traded fund trading. Only a small portion of ETFs are very low cost and are broadly diversified. The rest of these ETFs are just high priced index funds that focus on narrower and narrower securities market segments.

    The more you trade ETFs, the worse you are likely to do. Remember that exchange traded funds are a brokerage industry response to the mutual fund industry. ETFs have allowed securities brokers to capture some investor assets that otherwise would have be invested in traditional mutual funds.

    With a few notable exceptions, most mutual fund companies try to push up their fees by implying that their actively managed funds will beat the market. In aggregate this claim is false, and the more you spend the less you are likely to get. In the same vein, brokers selling ETFs may point to lower ETF management expense ratios and the supposed superior tax efficiency of ETFs.

    However, most ETFs still have excessive expense ratios and carry the heavy added burden of brokerage trading fees. Excessive trading can easily negate any supposed ETF tax advantages. ETFs only make sense as an alternative to mutual funds, if you buy only very low cost, broadly diversified ETFs from a discount broker, and then you hold them for the long-term without trading

    To obtain better net investment returns, individual investors must carefully control both visible investment management fees and more hidden investment trading costs and associated capital gains taxes.

    At the same time that investment management fees and costs were rising dramatically, industry deregulation, market innovation, and increased competition provided many new and useful low cost investment fund mechanisms for investors to manage their assets in a far more cost-efficient and tax-efficient manner. Just because most other individual investors and their financial advisors seem not to have a clue about optimal investment strategies does not mean that you need to be clueless, as well. You do not have to play this game. You will not be alone, if you decide to stop listening to the siren song of superior returns and then cut your costs to the bone so that you actually have a better chance of really obtaining superior returns.

    Adopting investment strategies based on scientific finance is the first part of investment cost and investment tax reduction. Low cost, passive index fund investment strategies are inherently more cost-efficient and far less risky. This is not surprising, because a fundamental goal of investment research has been to discover those strategies which maximize personal economic welfare on a risk-adjusted returns basis. It is time to pay attention to this research and to stop listening to the securities industry’s siren songs about superior investment returns.

    Individuals can adopt very low cost passive index investment strategies and avoid the charade of paying much more to get inferior investment results. Furthermore, when you stop playing this game, you also stop exposing yourself to many unnecessary and uncompensated investment risks along the way. In addition, you save a lot of your valuable time. For more information about why passive investment strategies are advantageous, see this article “Passive individual investors are “free riders” who benefit from the higher costs of active traders” published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor.

    The conflicts of interest between individual investors and the financial services industry continually threaten the investment portfolios of individuals and their families.

    Focusing on investment cost reduction can also draw your attention to the potentially very negative personal financial impacts of biased and sub-optimal advice. The financial services industry offers products and services for investors to buy at prices that include the market value of the investment securities plus the costs and profits related to the sale and transaction. Often the true cost of the industry’s markup is obscured or hidden.

    Investors need to understand that their interactions with the financial markets through these industry intermediaries are a “zero-sum game.” In and of itself, the securities industry does not create any value for you. Of course, the markets serve extremely valuable price setting and capital allocation functions within the global economy. Nevertheless, the competition between professional investors largely drives and achieves these important capital allocations functions.

    Before investment costs and capital gains taxes are considered, at best, the securities markets are a “zero sum” game from the point-of-view of the interests of individual investors.

    I say “at best,” because the demonstrated naivete and mistakes in personal investment management of millions of individual investors, makes it likely that their involvement in the securities markets is already a slightly “negative sum” game even before they pay such high investment fees and costs. However, when excessive “retail investor” costs and taxes are considered, then a significant portion of investors’ potential returns are simply swept away by the financial securities industry.

    Particularly with the abnormally high market returns of equities-based securities during the last two decades of the 20th century, many investors became very lax about managing their investment costs and capital gains tax realization. Double digit returns made costs seem like “just few percent” and not very important. Following the dot-com stock market crash and the deflating of the equity securities asset bubble, many investors need to make cost cutting and investment tax reduction a much higher priority.

    The most effective strategy you have to improve your investment returns is to cut you investment costs and investment taxes down to the bare minimum. Once you commit to this mission across your lifetime, you may discover another financial miracle. When you refuse to pay more than the bare minimum needed to buy very broadly diversified investment funds, then financial advisors who add no value will figure out that you are not an easy mark and move on. Then, you might actually have a better chance of finding a financial advisor who will provide advice that is actually in your best interests!

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    Personal Investment Strategy

    Step 6 of 10 Personal Financial Planning Steps in the Right Direction

    This is one of the “10 Steps in the Right Direction” that make up The Pasadena Financial Planner’s personal financial planning and personal investment management process. For a summary of these ten steps, see “Your Family Financial Planning.” To find an in-depth article for each step, just click the Sitemap link at the top of this page. Also, you can reach us by using the contact form below. Please enjoy reading this article. Thank you!

    Without a rational personal investment system based on scientifically verified investment management strategies, individual investors will make inferior decisions based on false assumptions.

    Given the extremely large number and variety of available securities, investors need a rational basis to select among them. Thousands of brokerage firms and investment management companies compete for the investment assets of individual investors and their families. Unfortunately you cannot rely upon securities industry personnel to tell you what is the best investment strategy for you. You can be much more assured that they will tell you to do what benefits them and the profits of their investment management companies. Unfortunately, many financial services industry personnel will say or suggest practically anything, if they think it will help to close the sale more quickly.

    This article continues below this introduction:

    Pasadena Investment Advisors

    A truly independent financial planner and fee only investment advisor

    .

    Larry Russell, Managing Director

    MBA – Stanford University, MA – Brandeis University, and BS – M.I.T.

    Lawrence Russell and Company Pasadena, California 91103

    A California Registered Investment Adviser — Certificate 133101

    KNOWLEDGE — OBJECTIVITY — HONESTY — DILIGENCE — SATISFACTION

    Start a conversation today — Send a message using this contact form

    Registered Investment Advisor Pasadena

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    There are many investment advisors and investment counselors who provide good advice. Unfortunately, it is often very difficult to tell good advice from not-so-good advice. Most securities industry personnel are trained to sell and are not trained to make the best investment decisions on your behalf. They are trained to inspire trust and develop a rapport with you. Many simply do not know how to provide advice that is in the best interests of their clientele. If they are just trained to sell to you, why should they know what is in your best interests?

    In addition, there is also an incredible amount of historical performance chasing and unnecessary investment risk taking that goes with individuals’ investment money. Unwittingly or otherwise, many investment counselors and individual investors pursue highly inferior personal investment management strategies.

    There is not reason to guess or to wing it, when your investment money and future retirement is at stake. There is a very large body of statistical investment research that can instruct any interested person about what tends to work and what tends not to work with personal investment strategies.

    If you can not find scientific evidence to verify a personal investment management strategy, then just do not do it. Do your research and find out what works and what does not. For more information about scientifically based personal investment strategies, see these articles on “Personal Investment Management.” These articles are published on our sister website, The Skilled Investor.

    The best investment strategy for lifetime personal finance and retirement planning

    To cut to the chase about what tends to work best with investment strategy and retirement planning, The Pasadena Financial Planner has concluded that all forms of active management that cannot be cost justified should be driven out of personal investment strategies. Individual investors need to choose a comfortable, very low cost, low tax, risk-adjusted market investment strategy and let it run over time. Maintenance should be minimal and low cost, and the urge to chase “beat the market” mirages should be heavily restrained. Investors’ strategies should focus on broad-based, market-oriented investment funds securities (mutual funds and ETFs) that can be acquired economically and held inexpensively for an extended period.

    Buy the cheapest, most broad based investment mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs). Buy and hold them. Otherwise get on with your real life. For more information about scientifically based personal investment strategies, see these articles on “7 Ways to Pick the Best Noload Mutual Funds and ETFs.” These articles are published on our sister website, Best No Load Mutual Funds.

    Three key concepts are important to consider when deciding on the best investment strategy for your personal investment portfolio.

    First, the current price of a security represents the market’s consensus about its potential future value, given the various advantages and disadvantages that all investors see in holding or selling that security. As such, the current security price is a weighted average valuation forecast of events that might or might not occur. Market prices are the best available assessment of forward-looking, risk-adjusted fair market value.

    Through securities market prices, a wide array of investors with differing predictions and varying concerns essentially “vote” on the expected or likely future value of a security through its current price. Investors’ evaluations of the value of securities may vary widely. What one person might see as a great bargain, another might consider grossly overpriced. Without this divergence of opinion over current securities values, there would be no trading of securities. Given the immense volume of securities trading that occurs daily across the world’s securities exchanges, it is clear that there is no shortage of significant differences of opinion about current market values.

    Second, securities prices represent the current valuation consensus on a risk-adjusted basis. Risk refers to the expected size and likelihood of future up or down price variations or volatility. As such, not only do prices reflect expected returns, they also reflect the panoply of concerns, optimism, risks, and euphoria about how a wide range of factors might affect the price in the future.

    Third, given this highly speculative, future-oriented, and risk-adjusted valuation process, there are bound to be very significant price fluctuations as time goes on. This variability is the natural side effect of the market’s communal, self-interested valuation process and is neither good nor bad. It seemly means that speculation about future investment value has been, is, and will always be subject to risk and uncertainty.

    The problem with trying to predict future securities market values is that the future is fundamentally unknowable, until it arrives.

    While history can be instructive about what might be more or less likely in the future, history tends not to be predictive. Securities prices exhibit only a very tiny level of predictability within a very large range of random fluctuations. The blending of expectations about future returns and risks into current securities prices means that the situation is subject to a wide range of either insightful to specious predictions. Unfortunately, you can only guess which predictions are insightful or specious, until after the fact.

    The volatility of prices across time provides an opportunity for just about anyone to develop a supposedly predictive theory on how the markets actually work and to offer selected data to support their arguments. The only reliable way to sort through what is true or false is to rely upon the investment research studies of highly disciplined academics who carefully test these theories against market price data that is unbiased.

    Individual investors are usually better off, when they ignore concerns about whether the securities markets fairly value investment securities.

    If there is a reasonably large and liquid market where investors interact through “arms length” transactions, then individual investors should simply accept current market prices and avoid the usually futile temptation to second-guess current values and try to beat the market. While some securities prices will eventually be shown to have been either too high or too low relative to their subsequent prices, the reasons almost always have nothing to do with current market pricing mistakes by the securities markets.

    Current securities market prices do a pretty good job of reflecting information that is already know. Statistical studies demonstrate that errors tend to cancel each other leaving little opportunity of investors – especially amateur individual investors – to identify, trade, and profit on these current pricing errors. In effect, especially among individual investors, those who appear to have done better than the market were largely lucky and those who did more poorly were simply unlucky.

    Instead, prices tend to change over time due to unpredictable future events which occur and cause the securities markets to revalue securities. New information continually changes forward-looking expectations about expected future investment values. Since this new information becomes known only if and when it happens, there is no way to have reliably predicted it. Speculation about a range of possible future events will influence current prices, but only time will tell what actually will happen.

    Some full-time professional investment managers and professional securities analysts might be able to discern when a security is more likely to be under-valued or over-valued. On average, before their added costs and taxes are considered, active professional mutual fund managers have been shown to deliver performance that is modestly better than passive index benchmarks. However, across all professional investors there is no evidence that they can consistently beat the markets, after their added costs and higher taxes are taken into consideration.

    Unfortunately, the average professional investment fund manager charges several times his added-value through increased investment fees, costs, and taxes.

    For the individual investor trying to identify and hire only “superior investment managers,” this effort is highly uncertain, usually futile, and subject to a great deal of error and dumb luck. Except for cost reduction, there are no reliable metrics to predict superior investment fund performance and to identify superior money managers before the fact.

    So, where are all the perennially superior traditional money managers who can be hired economically to manage your money and that of thousands of others for a superior return? They are not to be found. Individual investors spend an excessive amount of time and money looking for investment mutual fund managers who will almost all turn out not to be the next Warren Buffett in the long run.

    The lowest cost investments will always mean adopting a passive index benchmark investment strategy. The logical decision of individual investors is to avoid all costly activism and not to pay a substantially more for a very poor chance of winning versus a much larger chance of losing. Instead of trying to beat the market or trying to find a mutual fund manager who will beat the market net of his substantial added costs, individual investors should focus their efforts on:

    Invest passively in very low cost, very broadly diversified index funds across the world. Save more to build your assets. Do something else that you actually enjoy, instead of wasting your time and money playing amateur individual investor.

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